This work in progress aims to provide a unified introduction to statistical learning, building up slowly from classical models like the GMM and HMM to modern neural networks like the VAE and diffusion models. There are today many internet resources that explain this or that new machine-learning algorithm in isolation, but they do not (and cannot, in so brief a space) connect these algorithms with each other or with the classical literature on statistical models, out of which the modern algorithms emerged. Also conspicuously lacking is a single notational system which, although unfazing to those already familiar with the material (like the authors of these posts), raises a significant barrier to the novice's entry. Likewise, I have aimed to assimilate the various models, wherever possible, to a single framework for inference and learning, showing how (and why) to change one model into another with minimal alteration (some of them novel, others from the literature). Some background is of course necessary. I have assumed the reader is familiar with basic multivariable calculus, probability and statistics, and linear algebra. The goal of this book is certainly not completeness, but rather to draw a more or less straight-line path from the basics to the extremely powerful new models of the last decade. The goal then is to complement, not replace, such comprehensive texts as Bishop's \emph{Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning}, which is now 15 years old.

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents often operate in partially observed and uncertain environments. Model-based RL suggests that this is best achieved by learning and exploiting a probabilistic model of the world. 'Active inference' is an emerging normative framework in cognitive and computational neuroscience that offers a unifying account of how biological agents achieve this. On this framework, inference, learning and action emerge from a single imperative to maximize the Bayesian evidence for a niched model of the world. However, implementations of this process have thus far been restricted to low-dimensional and idealized situations. Here, we present a working implementation of active inference that applies to high-dimensional tasks, with proof-of-principle results demonstrating efficient exploration and an order of magnitude increase in sample efficiency over strong model-free baselines. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of applying active inference at scale and highlight the operational homologies between active inference and current model-based approaches to RL.

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.